Work task leaders: Dr. Miklós Neményi; Dr. Gábor Milics
Collaborators: Mátyás Csiba, Dr. Károly Kacz, Zsolt Stépán, Dr. Péter Sembery
Results:
Redemption of fossil energy sources and reduction of CO2 gases is a mandatory issue in Hungary. The National Climate Change Strategy (2008-2025) (NÉS) appropriates the reduction of effects of climate change, as well as fulfillment of international agreement requirements. One of the possible solutions for redemption of fossil energy sources is the increased application of nuclear power, the feasibility study for this possibility was ordered by the Hungarian house of parliament. The redemption of fossil energy sources according to the NÉS can be achieved by turning to a lower level carbon economy. We have to consider, that Hungary is dependent on the import carbon based energy sources, therefore this can cause dependency and the safety of energy supply can not be guaranteed. The studies available for the general public reports 150-1300 PJ available renewable energy for the country which is just part of the total theoretical 2600-2800 PJ calculated by the subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Obviously the theoretical level can never be achieved. According to the data available by 2020 the share of the renewable energies in the total energy consumption will be 13%, and within the electrical energy 18%. Preliminary studies assume that by 2020 the total energy based on renewables will be 186,4 PJ. Since all the studies consider biomass as the primary source for the renewable sources in Hungary (followed by geothermal, wind and solar energy) we have to concentrate on this source. For the production of biological based raw materials the country has very good conditions, as about 50% percent of Hungary’s territory is arable land, and on about 20% forest can be found. Our aim was to concentrate on the agro-bioenergy therefore we will not calculate with all the biological based raw materials. It is mandatory to plan ahead in the agro-energetic raw material production as the biological based productions are also the raw materials for the food industry, the feed, and other industrials. Plant production is an intensive utilization of the environment. Fertilizers and other chemicals applied during farming is the major part of the energy balance of the plant production fertilizer replenishment and plant protection has to be carried out with due foresight. As from the point of view of energetic utilization burning is less important than biofuel or biogas production. It has to be taken into consideration that according to some studies some utilizations of the biomass can produce more carbon-dioxide than the reduction taken by the application. It is important to investigate in a complex manner that in some cases invasive species are preferred in the raw material production for energetic applications which can harm the natural balance of the environment. According to the earlier mentioned study in Hungary about 400 thousand hectare can be used as a field for energetic plant production, which could be enough to have 10% of renewable based biofuels in the country. Further possibility is the second and third generation biofuel production which can be 2-3 times more efficient if we calculate on the basis of one hectare field raw material.
Concerning the energy scenarios, we have to keep in mind that nuclear energy seems to be a must in order to fulfill the requirements of the energy demand. At the same time energy efficiency and application of renewable energy sources seem to be the main stream of the policies. The share of the low efficiency fossil energy basis has to be reduced. Decentralization and continuous development of the national grid this requirement can be achieved. It is important to emphasize on the fact, however that in case the Paks Nuclear Power Plant can not be function in the future, the dependency on import (fossil)sources can be as high as 85% percent in a short distance future. The different scenarios are calculating with 500-1500 MW newly built renewable based production. According to the studies the carbon dioxide production even in the best case can be held in today’s level till 2025 and than it increases rapidly.
Predoc financed by this project: Mátyás Csiba
Realized conferences, study tours by the project: TÁMOP-4.2.2 Opening conference, Conference and workshop (USA, New York): Integrated Global Water Cycle Observations
